Civilization Lab 0.2 — “The Model”

SIMULATED TIME WEEK 0 250 people · seed 1848 Saved on this device

START HERE // READER'S GUIDE

The Model compares assumptions. It does not declare what people are.

ConstructGenerate a repeatable synthetic population. The same seed and settings produce the same starting society.
State assumptionsChoose a constitution and scenario. Every coefficient is a contestable causal hypothesis.
Run alternativesUse branches for a controlled comparison or uncertainty trials for a range of plausible outcomes.
Interpret carefullyRead patterns and differences, not prophecy. Historical calibration is still required before real-world claims.

EXPERIMENT LEDGER // CLOUD RECORD

Carry the same experiment between devices.

The lab saves a working copy on this device. Sign in with SyncroTel ID to sync named experiments across phone and computer.

Construct society

Create a deterministic synthetic population.

Population Larger populations show more variation but take longer to run. Start with 250 while designing a scenario. Generation seedA seed fixes the random starting conditions so another person can reproduce the experiment.

Model constitution

Expose and alter the causal assumptions used by this run.

Constitution preset A preset changes causal sensitivity, not anyone's moral worth or political correctness. A value of 1.00 is the baseline.

Advanced causal coefficients

Population architecture

Shape households, neighborhoods, institutions, and the social network.

Architecture preset Presets are contrasting structural hypotheses, not descriptions of entire real populations.

Introduce change

Reduces security and buffers; increases fear and arousal.

Event Intensity 65How strongly the event changes affected people during each active week. Population reach 70%The weekly chance that any one person is affected. It is not a permanent demographic category.

Advance Moves time forward while events, recovery, networks, and baseline pressures interact.

ACTIVE EVENTS

None. The system is relaxing toward baseline.

CONSTITUTION GRAPH // CAUSAL MAP

Trace how contestable assumptions connect conditions to simulated outcomes.

How to read this: A thicker orange pathway is stronger in the current constitution. Gray pathways are currently fixed formulas and remain assumptions even though they are not adjustable yet.

POPULATION ARCHITECTURE // SOCIAL FABRIC

The same people behave differently when their relationships and institutions are arranged differently.

Household Shared institution Neighborhood Bridge Institution member Unaffiliated

Select a person in the network to inspect their structural position.

COHORT & INSTITUTION ATLAS // v0.7

Inspect how life stage, baseline material position, and institutional context distribute outcomes.

Cohorts are synthetic analytical groupings, not identities or diagnoses. Material position is assigned from baseline security, income, housing, and buffer; it does not change during a run.

SYNTHETIC COHORTS

Rows are life stages; columns are baseline material positions.

Select a cohort to inspect its current simulated outcomes.

Lower current stressHigher current stress

DIFFERENTIATED INSTITUTIONS

Capacity buffers strain; reliability shapes legitimacy; responsiveness changes reform effects.

Inspect institution

Choose an institution to inspect its members and operating assumptions.

POPULATION PULSE

Averages conceal variation. Distributions and regions appear below.

Reading the scores: Values are internal 0–100 scales, not percentages or probabilities. Higher wellbeing, cooperation, trust, and legitimacy indicate more capacity; higher stress, polarization, and public/private gap indicate more pressure.

POPULATION LANDSCAPE

Every point is a synthetic person. Select a point to inspect the individual beneath the aggregate.

Analytical lens

Select a point to connect the population field to the person inspector.

SYSTEM PROFILE

Mean capacity by human domain.

SYSTEM TRAJECTORY

Cooperation Legitimacy Stress

CALIBRATION WORKBENCH // v0.6

Compare the engine with documented observations and preserve where it fails.

Case name Evidence statusDemonstration values are not historical evidence. Source and mapping noteRecord how the external measure was translated onto the engine's 0–100 scale.

Simulated trajectory Observation Residual

Observation points are compared only where the simulation contains the same week.

OBSERVATION REGISTER

Every point retains its confidence and source note.

Week Mapped metric Mapped value Confidence Source / transformation note

Week	Mapped metric	Observed	Simulated	Residual	Confidence and note

PARAMETER-RANGE EXPLORATION

Find the coefficient value that best fits this case without silently changing the constitution.

Coefficient Minimum Maximum

No range has been explored. The workbench reports fit inside this engine; it does not establish causality.

REGIONAL FIELD

Select one of 40 synthetic regions.

Select a region to inspect its local climate.

DISTRIBUTIONS

Trust Stress

Score bands from 0 to 100 · bar height is population count

PERSON INSPECTOR

The population remains inspectable down to one synthetic person.

Each domain score averages several underlying traits on the person's character sheet. Harm variables such as pain and fear are inverted, so a higher domain score consistently means more available capacity.

Person ID

EVENT TIMELINE STUDIO // v0.5

Arrange shocks, responses, and reforms as a sequence instead of collapsing history into one event.

Event Begins at week Duration Intensity Reach

Start is relative to the current simulation week. Events overlap when their windows overlap. Intensity controls weekly effect size; reach is each person's weekly chance of encountering that event.

Select an event block to inspect or remove it.

Compare this sequence withBoth futures begin from the same current population.

Run a comparison to isolate how event order and overlap change the ending state.

SCENARIO LABORATORY // v0.4

Compose a multi-channel event, then run many plausible populations instead of trusting one forecast.

PresetStarting assumptions that remain editable. Scenario nameA human-readable label for discussion and the experiment record. Evidence statusInputs chosen for exploration, not derived from evidence. Event windowHow long all scenario channels remain active. Source / calibration noteRequired when a scenario is labeled observed.

Channels can reinforce or counteract one another. For example, material pressure and a community response may occur together. Zero disables a channel; 100 is the engine's current ceiling, not a claim about maximum real-world severity.

Population reach 85%Weekly probability that a person encounters each active channel. HorizonHow far outcomes are followed. TrialsIndependent populations and input variation.

Apply once changes the current timeline using the exact settings. Run uncertainty leaves the timeline unchanged and repeats the scenario with different populations and modest input variation.

The shaded band shows where the middle 80% of trials landed, from the 10th to the 90th percentile. It is a simulation range, not a statistical confidence interval. Each trial uses up to 1,000 synthetic agents.

BRANCH COMPARISON

Apply two alternatives to the same population state and constitution.

Both branches begin from an identical synthetic society. Changing only the event isolates the difference produced by that assumption inside this engine.

Branch A event Branch B event Intensity Run length

Choose two events to produce a controlled counterfactual.

REVIEW BRIEF

A self-contained handoff for critique, not a claim of validation.

Experiment frame

Scenario assumptions

Interpretation limits

All people and relationships are synthetic.
Scores are internal model scales, not measured probabilities.
Causal weights are hypotheses and may encode omissions or bias.
Simulation ranges describe repeated runs of this engine, not confidence about reality.
Historical calibration and out-of-sample validation are still required.

OPERATIONAL GLOSSARY

These are model definitions, not universal definitions.

Wellbeing: A composite of health, energy, safety, hope, security, belonging, autonomy, and meaning, reduced slightly by stress.
Stress: Accumulated pain, arousal, fear, anger, shame, insecurity, and reduced recovery or regulation.
Cooperation: Capacity for regulated, flexible, trusting collective action. It does not mean obedience, agreement, or conformity.
Legitimacy: The population's simulated acceptance of institutions as credible or appropriate.
Polarization: Dispersion of private beliefs across the population. A high value means beliefs are farther apart.
Public/private gap: The average distance between what a person privately believes and publicly expresses.
Constitution coefficient: A causal multiplier. 1.00 is baseline; 1.40 makes that pathway 40% stronger; 0.60 makes it 40% weaker.
Percentile band: The range containing the middle 80% of simulated trials. It describes this experiment, not certainty about reality.
Outlier: A synthetic person or run far from the center. Outliers remain inspectable and are not discarded as errors.

EXPERIMENT RECORD

The causal sequence remains visible and reviewable.